世界农业

RCEP签署生效为区域贸易的持续快速增长带来了巨大动力，从制度视角出发，准确剖析中国农产品出口增长的内在动力是深化区域农产品贸易合作的客观要求。本文在提出理论假设的基础上，构建三元边际分析模型，采用2002—2020年CEPII数据库的相关农产品数据，以制度距离作为解释变量，考察中国对RCEP国家农产品出口边际特征及影响因素。结果表明，中国对RCEP国家农产品出口增长主要靠扩展边际与价格边际拉动。从整体来看，制度距离对扩展边际产生显著负面影响，对数量边际产生显著正向影响；从分国家回归结果看，制度距离对于制度高质量国家出口边际无显著影响，政治制度距离显著抑制低质量制度国家农产品出口种类扩张，促进数量增长；从分类别回归结果看，政治制度距离对于植物产品出口扩展边际的抑制作用更加显著，经济制度距离对于出口边际的作用存在异质性。对此，本文提出了优化中国制度环境、建立完善的制度质量评估体系、加大对外开放力度与促进制度创新等政策建议，以期为推动中国农产品出口提供参考。

The signing and entry into force of the RCEP agreement has brought tremendous impetus to the sustained and rapid growth of regional trade.Accurately analyzing the internal driving force of China's agricultural product exports growth from the institutional perspective is an objective requirement for deepening regional agricultural product trade cooperation.Based on the theoretical hypothesis and take institutional distance as the crucial variable, this article builds a ternary marginal analysis model and uses relevant agricultural product data from the CEPII database from 2002 to 2020 to examine the marginal characteristics and influencing factors of China's agricultural product exports to RCEP countries.The results indicate that the growth of China's agricultural product exports to RCEP countries is mainly driven by the expansion margin and price margin.As a whole, institutional distance has a significant negative impact on the expansion margin and positive impact on the quantity margin.From the perspective of country specific regression, institutional distance has no significant effect on China's export margin of high institutional quality countries, and political institutional distance significantly suppresses the expansion of agricultural product exports from low institutional quality countries and promotes quantity growth.From the perspective of categorical regression, it can be seen that political institutional distance has a more significant inhibitory effect on the expansion margin of plant product exports, while economic institutional distance has a heterogeneous effect on that.Consequently, to promote China's agricultural product exports, this article proposes several policy recommendations such as optimizing China's institutional environment, establishing a comprehensive system for evaluating institutional quality, improving the opening degree to other countries and facilitating institutional innovation.