世界农业

促进粮食产业高质量发展是保障粮食安全、实现农业现代化、推进乡村全面振兴的重要举措。在产业链协同视角下，本文基于2011年、2016年和2021年全国31个省份的截面数据，选取粮食生产、粮食加工、粮食流通、粮食消费和粮食产业环境5个前因条件，采用必要条件分析(NCA)与模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法，探究粮食产业高质量发展的典型路径。研究发现：(1)粮食加工、粮食流通为粮食产业发展的必要条件，且粮食加工的重要性相对更高。(2)粮食产业高质量发展存在3种路径：全链协同型、粮食加工引领协同型和优质原粮驱动协同型。(3)时间演变趋势分析发现，粮食产业高质量发展路径由2011年粮食生产主导的2种组态，过渡到2016年粮食加工主导的2种组态，再到2021年多元驱动的3种组态，且粮食加工和流通的重要性不断增强，粮食产业环境是关键支撑条件。本文提出推进粮食产业高质量发展的对策建议：加强对粮食加工和流通的政策支持力度，因时、因地制宜选择发展路径，多措并举营造良好的粮食产业环境。本文既丰富了粮食产业的理论研究，也为粮食产业高质量发展的多元路径提供了实践借鉴。

Promoting high-quality development of the grain industry is an important measure to ensure food security, achieve agricultural modernization, and promote comprehensive rural revitalization.Based on cross-sectional data from 31 provinces(cities) in China in 2011, 2016, and 2021, this study selects five antecedent conditions of grain production, grain processing, grain circulation, grain consumption, and grain industry environment, and uses the NCA and fsQCA methods to explore the typical pathways of grain industry high-quality development from the perspective of industrial chain synergy.The study finds that:(1) Grain processing and grain circulation are the necessary conditions for the development of the grain industry, and the importance of grain processing is relatively higher.(2) There are three pathways for the high-quality development of the grain industry: the all-chain synergy type, the grain processing-led synergy type, and the high-quality raw grain-driven synergy type.(3) The analysis of temporal evolution trends reveals that the pathways for the high-quality development of the grain industry have evolved from two configurations dominated by grain production in 2011, to two configurations dominated by grain processing in 2016, and to three configurations driven by multiple factors in 2021.The importance of grain processing and circulation has continued to increase, and the grain industry environment is a key supporting condition.The policy recommendations for promoting the high-quality development of the grain industry are: strengthen policy support for grain processing and circulation; select development pathways that are appropriate for the time and place; and take multiple measures to create a favorable grain industry environment.This study not only enriches the theoretical research on the grain industry but also provides practical reference for the diverse pathways of high-quality development of the grain industry.