世界农业

农业保险和农业贷款是促进农业产业可持续、集约化和高质量发展的有力工具,理论上也是切实提高农民收入的重要手段。本文基于全国25个省2009—2018年数据,构建了"农业保险""农业贷款"和"农民收入"3个系统的耦合协调发展模型。结果发现,中国各省农业保险、农业贷款和农民收入的发展水平逐年上升,农民收入增速超过了农业保险和农业贷款;然而,各系统的总体发展水平和3个系统的综合发展水平相对较低,且存在明显的区域差异。农业大省或自然灾害多发地区,其农业保险发展较好;经济较发达地区或农业大省,其农业贷款和农民收入水平相对较高;经济欠发达地区三者都比较低等。此外,大部分省(自治区、直辖市)的农民收入对农业经济的依赖程度正在变低。耦合协调度方面,2009—2018年各省3个系统的耦合协调度都呈现出稳定增长态势;但是,2018年的整体均值较低,尚处在初级协调发展阶段。而大多数省份的数据揭示,3个系统的协调发展有利于农民收入增长,且协调度越高越有利。基于此,本文提出了促进三者协调发展的相关对策建议。

Agricultural insurance and agricultural loans are powerful tools to promote the sustainable,intensive and high-quality development of agricultural industry.Theoretically,they are also important means to effectively increase farmers' income.Based on the data of 25 provinces in China from 2009 to 2018,this paper constructs the coupling coordinated development model of"agricultural insurance","agricultural loan"and"farmers' income".The results show that the development level of agricultural insurance,agricultural loans and farmers' income in the provinces of China is increasing year by year,and the growth rate of farmers' income is faster than that of agricultural insurance and agricultural loans.However,the overall development level of each system and the comprehensive development level of the three systems are relatively low,and there are significant regional differences.On the whole,agricultural insurance develops well in big agricultural provinces or areas with frequent natural disasters.The level of agricultural loans and the farmers' income level are higher in economically developed regions or big agricultural provinces,and all of the three systems' development level in the underdeveloped areas are relatively low.In addition,the dependence degree of farmers' income on agricultural economy is decreasing in most provinces.In terms of coupling coordination,from2009 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of the three systems in each region and province presents a steady growth trend.However,the overall average for 2018 is still low and in the stage of"primary coordinated development".The data from most provinces reveal that the"coordinated development"of the three systems is conducive to the growth of farmers' income,and the higher the degree of coordination,the more favorable it is.Based on this,the paper finally puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions to promote the coordinated development of the three systems.