世界农业

本文以中国柑橘产业为例,依据柑橘8个主产省份的面板数据,通过LMDI法梳理当前推动柑橘总产值提升的贡献因素,并进一步从比较优势的角度分析判断中国未来柑橘产业发展趋势。研究结果表明,现阶段中国柑橘产业总产值的提升主要依靠种植面积与单产水平的提高,价格对其总产值的贡献度却在不断下降。而在农户预期比较收益与柑橘种植面积存在显著正相关的环境下,随着比较收益空间的收窄,农户在短期内可以灵活地调整其单产水平,长期来看可能会进一步降低柑橘的种植面积,进而导致中国柑橘产业面临萎缩的风险。因此,本文从如何通过优质优价来提高收益,维持柑橘较高比较收益的视角提出相关政策建议。

To optimize the structure of the agri-product and increase agricultural output value is the core task of the supply-side reform in China's fruit industry.This study based on panel data,calculated the contribution ofthe changes of citrus output,and analyzed the developing trend of citrus industry from the perspective of comparative advantage.Results showed that the improvement of the total output value of citrus industry in China depended on the increase of planting area and the level of yield,and the contribution of price to its output value was decreasing.The expected return on farmers was significantly positively related to the citrus planting area,as the space of comparative gains narrowing,farmers would flexibly adjust their yield level in the short time and gradually reduce the citrus planting areas in the future,resulting in citrus industry in China gradually shrinking.Therefore,this paper puts forward revelant policy suggestions on how to improve the profit and maintain the citrus industry's blooming.