世界农业

本文基于1985—2022年中国农村家庭人均主要食品消费量的数据，使用Dagum基尼系数及其分解法、非参数核密度估计和收敛模型分析了农村居民食物消费结构变化的区域差异、动态演进及收敛特征。结果表明：(1)中国农村居民食物消费结构不断升级，膳食中动物性食物供能比呈上升趋势，但南方地区农村居民动物性食物供能比高于北方地区，北方地区高于西北地区，表现出明显的区域不平衡；(2)区域内差异和区域间差异逐渐缩小，差异主要来源于区域间差异，其中南方和西北地区差异较大；(3)邻近省份食物消费结构存在较显著的空间正自相关和集聚性；(4)全国、南北方和西北地区的农村居民食物消费结构均存在σ-收敛、空间绝对β-收敛和空间条件β-收敛，且条件收敛速度快于绝对收敛速度，说明经济发展水平、交通网密度、食物储藏技术等社会经济因素对收敛有明显的加速作用；(5)中国农村地区的食物消费结构还没有升级到稳定状态，尤其是北方和西北地区保持了较快的升级速度，这意味着未来一段时间农村居民对肉蛋奶等动物性食物的需求仍会呈现增长的趋势。研究结论为政府相关部门制定区域性的营养干预措施以及粮食生产结构调整提供参考依据。

Based on the data of per capita main food consumption of rural households in China from 1985 to 2022,this paper uses Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method, nonparametric kernel density estimation and convergence model to analyze the regional differences, dynamic evolution and convergence characteristics of rural residents' food consumption structure changes.The results show that:(1)The food consumption structure of rural residents in China is constantly upgrading, and the energy supply ratio of animal food in the diet is on the rise.However, the energy supply ratio of animal food in rural residents in the southern region is higher than that in the northern region, and that in the northern region is higher than that in the northwest region, showing obvious regional imbalance.(2)The intra-regional and inter-regional differences are gradually narrowing, and the differences mainly come from inter-regional differences, among which the differences between the south and the northwest are larger.(3)There is a significant spatial positive autocorrelation and agglomeration in the food consumption structure of neighboring provinces.(4)There are σ convergence, spatial absolute β convergence and spatial conditional β convergence in the food consumption structure of rural residents in the whole country, the north and south, and the northwest region, and the conditional convergence speed is faster than the absolute convergence speed, indicating that the level of economic development, traffic network density, food storage technology and other socio-economic factors have a significant acceleration effect on convergence.(5)The food consumption structure in rural China has not yet been upgraded to a stable state, especially in the north and northwest regions, which means that the demand for animal food such as meat, eggs and milk will still show an increasing trend in the future.The research conclusions provide a reference for relevant government departments to formulate regional nutrition improvement measures and diversified agricultural production.