世界农业

面对“大国小农”的国情,农业社会化服务是实现小农户与现代农业有效衔接的重要途径。本文利用Python大数据爬虫技术,构建“农业社会化服务特征词库”爬取2012—2023年中国281个城市农业社会化服务数据并进一步进行时空特征分析。研究表明:农业社会化服务供给活力的总体差异呈现下降的趋势,2013—2019年农业社会化服务的总体差异呈缩小趋势,2020—2023年总体差异小幅波动上升,超变密度是导致总体差异的第一来源,其贡献率始终高于43%,这说明农业社会化服务供给活力存在明显的交叉重叠现象,这为因地制宜发展农业社会化服务提供政策启示。地区内部差异中东北地区差异大,地区间东-东北、东-西之间的差异尤为突出。基于莫兰指数和马尔科夫链的空间相关性结果,中国农业社会化服务供给活力存在空间集聚现象,即存在正向“空间溢出”效应和“俱乐部趋同”效应。本文为科学认识农业社会化服务的发展情况提供经验数据,以期为构建区域协调发展政策提供启示。

In light of China' s national context characterized by "a large country with small-scale farming",agricultural socialized services serve as a crucial pathway to effectively bridge smallholder farmers and modern agriculture.Utilizing Python-based big data web scraping technology,this paper constructs a "Lexicon of Agricultural Socialized Service Features" to collect data on agricultural socialized services across 281 Chinese cities from 2012 to 2023,followed by a spatio-temporal characteristic analysis.The study reveals that the overall disparity in the vitality of agricultural socialized service supply shows a declining trend.Specifically,the overall disparity narrowed from 2013 to 2019,followed by a slight fluctuating increase from 2020 to 2023.Hyper-variation density is identified as the primary source of the overall disparity,with its contribution rate consistently exceeding 43%.This indicates a significant cross-overlapping phenomenon in the supply vitality of agricultural socialized services,offering policy insights for tailoring the development of such services to local conditions.Among regional internal disparities,Northeast China exhibits the largest internal differences,while interregional disparities,particularly between East and Northeast China and between East and West China,are especially pronounced.Based on the spatial correlation results derived from the Moran's Index and Markov chain analysis,the supply vitality of agricultural socialized services in China demonstrates spatial clustering,manifesting positive "spatial spillover" effects and "club convergence" effects.This paper provides empirical data for a scientific understanding of the development of agricultural socialized services,with the aim of offering insights for formulating regionally coordinated development policies.