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本文分析了超强厄尔尼诺引发的干旱对东盟国家农业生产的影响，考察了主要东盟国家的应对措施。研究发现，超强厄尔尼诺导致东盟大米和热带经济作物减产，东盟各国纷纷出台文件和战略计划以应对厄尔尼诺，为受灾农户提供灾害补偿或补贴，并积极利用国际援助。在俄乌冲突及贸易保护主义已经造成全球食物系统风险骤增的情况下，东盟主要国家的农业补贴措施逐渐向促生产、增库存、稳粮价等方向转变。面对国际不确定性风险的叠加，中国应进一步完善气象灾害预警和农业防灾减灾机制，强化农业科技投入，提升热带经济作物适应干旱的能力，持续加强全球气候治理合作，增强粮食国际供应链韧性。
Abstract：This paper analyzes the impact of drought caused by super El Ni?o on agricultural production in ASEAN countries,and examines the countermeasures of major ASEAN countries.The study finds that the super El Ni?o led to the production of rice and tropical cash crops in ASEAN,ASEAN countries have issued documents and strategic plans to cope with El Ni?o,provide disaster compensation or subsidies for farmers affected by the disaster,and actively use international assistance.In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade protectionism have caused a sudden increase in risks to the global food system,the agricultural subsidy measures of major ASEAN countries have gradually shifted to the direction of promoting production,and increasing inventories and stabilizing food prices.In the face of international uncertainties and risks,China should further improve meteorological disaster warning and agricultural disaster prevention and reduction mechanisms,strengthen investment in agricultural science and technology,improve the drought resilience of tropical cash crops,strengthen cooperation on global climate governance,and enhance the resilience of the global food supply chain.
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① 资料来源：世界气象组织官网(https://news.un.org/zh/story/2023/05/1117597)。
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(7)注:自2022年5月以来,印度已经先后禁止出口小麦和大米,在2023年7月20日起禁止除蒸谷米和印度香米外的大米出口后,7月28日又宣布至11月30日前禁止出口主要用于生产饲料的去油米糠产品。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2024.07.001
中图分类号:F313;S42
引用信息:
[1]杨世龙,娄志超,谭砚文.东盟国家应对厄尔尼诺现象的农业措施调整及启示[J].世界农业,2024,No.543(07):9-20.DOI:10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2024.07.001.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金重大项目“保障我国粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给的路径与政策研究”(23&ZD121)
2024-07-08
2024-07-08