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全球格局变化已经成为农产品贸易的最大变量之一。一方面,中美之间博弈的加剧引发了中国农产品贸易转移效应。新上任的特朗普政府对中国加征关税,使得中美贸易摩擦存在升级的潜在风险,中美农产品贸易面临新的挑战。另一方面,局部地区地缘政治冲突不断,尤其是俄乌冲突与巴以冲突,对全球农产品贸易产生了深远影响。俄乌冲突导致粮食出口受阻,重创依赖俄乌粮食出口的国家。巴以冲突虽影响相对较小,但仍可能引发农产品价格波动,进而威胁全球农产品贸易稳定。地缘政治冲突通过国际贸易受阻、农资成本上升、贸易与政策风险等多种方式威胁中国农产品贸易稳定。为应对挑战,中国需从国内外两个角度形成合力,加强农业供给侧结构性改革,优化生产结构和布局,提高生产效率。同时,推动农产品进口来源多元化,深化国际合作,携手建设一个更具包容性、创新性和可持续性的“再全球化”农业贸易体系。
Abstract：Global structural changes have emerged as one of the most significant variables affecting agricultural trade.On the one hand,intensifying strategic competition between China and the United States has triggered a diversion effect in China' s agricultural trade.The newly inaugurated Trump administration' s imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods has heightened the potential for escalation in Sino-US trade friction,presenting fresh challenges to bilateral agricultural trade.On the other hand,ongoing geopolitical conflicts in specific regions,particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict,have exerted profound impacts on global agricultural trade.The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted grain exports,severely impacting nations reliant on Russian and Ukrainian food supplies.While the Israel-Palestine conflict has had a relatively smaller direct impact,it could still trigger fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices,thereby threatening the stability of global agricultural trade.Geopolitical conflicts threaten the stability of China's agricultural trade through multiple channels,including disrupted international trade,rising agricultural input costs,and heightened trade and policy risks.To address these challenges,China must foster synergy from both domestic and international perspectives.This involves strengthening agricultural supply-side structural reforms,optimising production structures and layouts,and enhancing production efficiency.Concurrently,efforts should be made to diversify agricultural import sources,deepen international cooperation,and jointly build a more inclusive,innovative,and sustainable "re-globalised" agricultural trade system.
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(1)数据来源:联合国粮农组织数据库。
(2)同①。
(3)数据来源:CEPII BACI数据库。
(4)同①。
(5)数据来源:联合国粮农组织数据库。
(6)数据来源:中华人民共和国商务部统计。
(7)中华人民共和国商务部统计数据显示,中国每年向巴勒斯坦出口的农产品额仅有500万美元左右,而中国从巴勒斯坦进口的农产品额未纳入统计。
(8)中华人民共和国商务部统计数据显示,2020—2024年中国与以色列的农产品贸易额从3亿美元增加到5.7亿美元,虽然涨幅明显,但贸易总额仍然相对较小。
(9)数据来源:联合国粮农组织数据库。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2026.03.002
中图分类号:F746;F313.7
引用信息:
[1]李春顶,刘洪汝.全球格局变化对农产品贸易的影响与对策[J].世界农业,2026,No.563(03):14-24.DOI:10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2026.03.002.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金重大项目“大国博弈和地缘政治风险对我国粮食安全的影响及对策研究”(25&ZD281)
2026-03-10
2026-03-10