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基于中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的准自然实验，采用双重差分(DID)模型研究贸易政策不确定性下降对中国企业农产品出口扩大的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现，贸易政策不确定性下降显著促进了企业农产品出口扩大。异质性分析表明，贸易政策不确定性下降对一般贸易出口产品和向发达国家出口产品，以及沿海地区和低融资约束水平企业的出口扩大作用更为显著；影响机制检验表明，出口数量提升和出口质量升级是贸易政策不确定性下降影响企业农产品出口扩大的两个渠道；进一步的扩展分析还显示，贸易政策不确定性下降导致的出口扩大偏向了非核心产品，在促进新的贸易关系产生的同时，也有利于已出口贸易关系的延续。本文进而提出继续削弱中国农产品出口的贸易政策不确定性、畅通其对农产品出口扩大的作用机制和农产品出口企业应珍视质量声誉的政策建议。
Abstract：Based on the quasi-natural experiment of China's accession to the WTO, the difference in difference(DID) model is used to study the effect and mechanism of the decrease of trade policy uncertainty on the expansion of Chinese enterprises' agricultural exports.It is found that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty significantly promotes the expansion of enterprises' agricultural exports.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty has a more significant impact on general trade export products and exports to developed countries, as well as for coastal regions and firms with low levels of financing constraints.The impact mechanism test shows that export quantity upgrading and export quality upgrading are two channels through which decrease in trade policy uncertainty affects firms' agricultural export expansion.The further extended analysis shows that the export expansion caused by the decrease of trade policy uncertainty is biased towards non-core products, which not only promotes the emergence of new trade relations, but also helps the existence of existing export trade relations.The paper goes on to propose policy recommendations to continue to weaken trade policy uncertainty in China's agricultural exports, to smooth the mechanism of its effect on agricultural export expansion, and that agricultural exporters should value their reputation for quality.
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(1)欧共体于1993年更名为欧盟,此处的欧共体(欧盟)成员国未纳入在中国加入WTO后加入欧盟的中东欧十国,仅包括在1986年及之前加入欧共体的法国、德国、意大利、荷兰、比利时、卢森堡、英国、丹麦、爱尔兰、希腊,葡萄牙、西班牙,和1995年加入欧盟的奥地利、瑞典和芬兰,共15个成员国。
(2)混合市场是指该产品同时在发达国家和发展中国家销售。
(3)沿海地区包括天津、河北、辽宁、上海、浙江、江苏、福建、山东、广东、广西和海南。
(4)同表1列(7)估计结果。
(5)此处的贸易关系指企业-产品组合。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2022.11.003
中图分类号:F752.0;F752.62;F323.7
引用信息:
[1]杨晓云,刘鑫.贸易政策不确定性与中国企业农产品出口扩大[J].世界农业,2022,No.523(11):24-36.DOI:10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2022.11.003.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目“进口扩张背景下的进出口联动机制与出口升级路径研究”(19BJY187)
2022-11-07
2022-11-07