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中国和美国是全球农业贸易网络中的关键主体，也是相互影响的重要贸易伙伴。本文对2018—2021年美国政策变化影响中美农产品贸易关系的路径进行分析，结合拜登政策主张展望拜登政府时期的中美农产品贸易关系走势。结合定性与定量方法，本文发现特朗普政府时期中美农产品贸易摩擦对美国弊大于利，直到中美第一阶段经贸协议在一定程度上修复了中美农产品贸易关系。美国极端单边主义随特朗普政府时期结束而暂停，拜登政府亟须恢复并提高美国农业的国际竞争力和国际话语权，新政府的农业对策在劳动力、科研、资金以及环境保护方面给予更多关注，意在加强美国农业的可持续发展能力，期望继续开拓美国农产品在中国的市场，中美农产品贸易未来亦存在冲突可能——为保障美国农业利益，拜登政府可能推动美国农产品出口的多元化，并通过自由贸易协议、非关税壁垒等措施向中国农产品的正常贸易施压。本文相应提出高水平扩大农业对外开放，进一步优化国际供应链和产业链，更好融入WTO多边框架机制，加大推进“一带一路”农产品贸易合作等相关政策建议。
Abstract：China and the United States are key players in the global agricultural trade network and important trading partners that influence each other.This paper analyzes the impact paths of US policy changes on China-US agricultural trade relations between 2018 and 2021 and looks at the trend of China-US agricultural trade relations during the Biden administration in the context of Biden's policy ideas.Combining qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper finds that the China-US agricultural trade friction under the Trump administration has “done more harm than good”to the US until the first phase of the China-US agreement repaired the China-US agricultural trade relations to a certain extent.The extreme “unilateralism” of the US was suspended with the end of the Trump era, and the Biden administration urgently needs to restore and improve the international competitiveness and international discourse of US agriculture, and the new administration's agricultural countermeasures pay more attention to labor, research, capital, and environmental protection, to strengthen the sustainability of US agriculture and expect to continue to develop.To protect US agricultural interests, the Biden administration will probably promote the diversification of US agricultural exports and put pressure on China's normal agricultural trade through free trade agreements, non-tariff barriers, and other measures.Accordingly, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions, such as expanding the opening up of agriculture to the outside world at a high level, further optimizing the international supply chain and industrial chain, better integrating into the multilateral framework mechanism of WTO,and promoting the “Belt and Road” agricultural trade cooperation.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2023.02.003
中图分类号:F323.7;F752.7;F757.12
引用信息:
[1]刘婷婷,麻吉亮,张蕙杰,等.中美农产品贸易关系分析与展望[J].世界农业,2023,No.526(02):38-47.DOI:10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2023.02.003.
基金信息:
财政部、农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系专项资金(CARS-08); 中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项“RCEP国际经贸新规则对我国农业的影响及对策研究”(1610052022023、Y2021ZK01),中国农业科学院创新工程“国际农业经济与贸易”(10-IAED-04-2022); 中国工程院咨询项目“工程科技支撑‘一带一路’建设战略研究”(2017-ZD-15)
2023-02-10
2023-02-10