世界农业

在全球碳中和议程加速与逆全球化趋势显现的背景下，碳中和政策对未来农业国际竞争的潜在影响逐渐成为焦点议题。农业作为社会稳定的基石，若被碳中和政策赋予竞争属性，将影响国家农业国际竞争力，进而威胁国家粮食安全，阻碍国家经济发展。本文系统分析了美国、欧盟、中国农业碳中和政策的制定逻辑及其对农产品国际贸易的影响，比较了中国与美国、欧盟政策存在的优势与不足，并据此提出中国完善农业碳中和政策及参与未来农业国际竞争的建议。研究发现，以上三个国家(地区)的碳中和政策均反映出各自在应对气候挑战和农业国际竞争中的战略考量。美国、欧盟的政策具有明显的竞争性，强调以技术、标准手段形成气候竞争优势，建立气候-贸易同盟，进而借助同盟影响农产品国际贸易，巩固、提升竞争优势。中国政策则不以竞争为目的，重在展示兼具安全、增长与绿色的“中国方案”。“有为政府”与“有效市场”的结合是中国政策的优势所在。然而，在国际合作、技术研发、市场工具方面中国政策仍有不足，可能面临欧美绿色壁垒的挑战。因此，建议中国强化与共建“一带一路”国家合作，加强关键技术研发，完善市场政策，并坚持“有为政府”优势，以更好地参与全球气候治理和应对未来农业国际竞争。

Against the backdrop of accelerating global carbon neutrality agendas and the emerging trend of deglobalization, the potential impact of carbon neutrality policies on future agricultural international competition has gradually become a focal issue. Agriculture, as the cornerstone of social stability, if endowed with competitive attributes by carbon neutrality policies, will affect a nation's agricultural international competitiveness, thus threatening national food security and hindering economic development. This study systematically analyzes the formulation logic of agricultural carbon neutrality policies in the United States(U.S.), the European Union(EU), and China, as well as their impact on international trade in agricultural products. It compares the advantages and disadvantages of China's policies with those of the U.S. and EU and proposes recommendations for improving China's agricultural carbon neutrality policies and participating in future agricultural international competition. The study finds that the policies of the three countries(regions) reflect their respective strategic considerations in addressing climate challenges and agricultural international competition. The policies of the U.S. and the EU are distinctly competitive, emphasizing the formation of climate competitive advantages through technology and standards, establishing climate-trade alliances, and leveraging these alliances to influence international trade in agricultural products, thereby consolidating and enhancing competitive advantages. China's policies, on the other hand, are not aimed at competition but focus on showcasing the “Chinese solution”, which balances security, growth, and environmental sustainability. The combination of “an active government” and “an efficient market” is the strength of China's policies. However, China's policies still have shortcomings in terms of international cooperation, technological research and development, and market tools, and may face challenges from the green trade barriers of the U.S. and EU. Therefore, it is recommended that China strengthen cooperation with countries along the “Belt and Road”, enhance key technological research and development, improve market policies, and uphold the advantages of “an active government” in order to better participate in global climate governance and address future agricultural international competition.