| 1,928 | 31 | 167 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
在农村劳动力大量转移致使农业劳动力严重不足的背景下，耕地抛荒现象越发严重，威胁着国家的粮食安全和农业可持续发展，因此探究劳动力转移如何影响耕地抛荒是值得深思的问题。本文基于中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)2014年、2016年和2018年的三期面板数据，使用面板Probit、面板Tobit模型研究劳动力转移对耕地抛荒的影响，并在此基础上探讨农业机械化对劳动力转移与耕地抛荒关系的调节效应。结果表明：劳动力转移显著增加了耕地抛荒行为、提高了耕地抛荒率。但农业机械化的使用削弱了劳动力转移对耕地抛荒的正向影响，具有负向调节作用。进一步分析显示，相比当地劳动力转移，外地劳动力转移对耕地抛荒的影响更显著；农业机械化的调节效应存在地势差异性，仅在平原地区起作用。因此，抑制耕地抛荒要增加农业收益，加大农业机械化的发展和应用，同时也要根据村庄地势类型制定针对性的解决措施。
Abstract：Against the backdrop of a large rural labor transfer leading to a serious shortage of agricultural labor, the phenomenon of farmland abandonment is becoming increasingly serious, threatening China's food security and sustainable agricultural development. Therefore, how labor transfer affects farmland abandonment is a question worth pondering. Based on the panel data of the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS) in 2014, 2016 and 2018, the paper uses the panel Probit model and panel Tobit model to explore the impact of labor transfer on farmland abandonment, and on this basis, discusses the regulatory effect of agricultural mechanization on the relationship between labor transfer and farmland abandonment. Results indicate that the labor transfer has significantly increased the behavior and rate of farmland abandonment. Agricultural mechanization has a negative regulatory effect by weakening the positive impact of labor transfer effectively on farmland abandonment. Further analysis demonstrates that compared to local labor transfer, the impact of migrant labor transfer on farmland abandonment is more significant; the regulatory effect of agricultural mechanization varies in terrain and only works in plain areas. To suppress the farmland abandonment, it's necessary to increase agricultural profits, improve the development and application of agricultural mechanization, and also develop targeted solutions based on the type of village terrain.
[1]项继权，周长友.“新三农”问题的演变与政策选择[J].中国农村经济，2017(10):13-25.
[2]RIGG J,SALAMANCA A,THOMPSON E C.The puzzle of East and Southeast Asia’s persistent smallholder[J].Journal of Rural Studies,2016,43(11):118-133.
[3]RIGG J,SALAMANCA A,PHONGSIRI M,et al.More farmers,less farming?Understanding the truncated agrarian transition in Thailand[J].World Development,2017,107(3):327–337.
[4]SHIRAI Y,FOX J,LEISZ S J,et al.The influence of local non-farm employment on rural household structure in Northeast Thailand[J].Journal of Rural Studies,2017,54(6):52-59.
[5]HEIN DE HAAS.Migration,remittances and regional development in Southern Morocco[J].Geoforum,2006,37(4):565-580.
[6]XIE H,WANG P,YAO G.Exploring the dynamic mechanisms of farmland abandonment based on a spatially explicit economic model for environmental sustainability:a case study in Jiangxi Province,China[J].Sustainability,2014,6(3):1260-1282.
[7]张鎏胤.农户非农化转移对耕地抛荒的影响研究[D].贵阳：贵州大学，2021.
[8]BRAD D J.Migration and agricultural change:the case of smallholder agriculture in Highland Ecuador[J].Human Ecology,2002,30(4):523-550.
[9]张英，李秀彬，宋伟，等.重庆市武隆县农地流转下农业劳动力对耕地撂荒的不同尺度影响[J].地理科学进展，2014,33(4):552-560.
[10]MA W,RENWICK A,GRAFTON Q.Farm machinery use,off-farm employment and farm performance in China[J].Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2018,62(2):279-298.
[11]ZHOU X,MA W,LI G,et al.Farm machinery use and maize yields in China:an analysis accounting for selection bias and heterogeneity[J].Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2020,64(4):1282-1307.
[12]仇童伟.农地流转市场化中的耕地抛荒[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2022,21(3):37-48.
[13]聂玉丽.河南省劳动力流动、土地规模经营对农业机械化的影响研究[D].郑州：河南大学，2020.
[14]钱静斐，陈志钢，MATEUSZ F,等.耕地经营规模及其质量禀赋对农户生产环节外包行为的影响：基于中国广西水稻种植农户的调研数据[J].中国农业大学学报，2017,22(9):164-173.
[15]庞乐乐.农村劳动力转移的影响因素及其“三农”影响效应[D].呼和浩特：内蒙古财经大学，2021.
[16]史桂芬，黎涵.人口迁移、劳动力结构与经济增长[J].管理世界，2018,34(11):174-175.
[17]常进雄，朱帆，董非.劳动力转移就业对经济增长、投资率及劳动收入份额的影响[J].世界经济，2019,42(7):24-45.
[18]郑祥江，杨锦秀.西南地区农村劳动力转移对农业生产影响研究[J].农村经济，2015(6):110-114.
[19]狄前防.农村劳动力转移对我国现代农业负面影响的问题研究[D].北京：中共中央党校，2017.
[20]盖庆恩，朱喜，史清华.劳动力转移对中国农业生产的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):1147-1170.
[21]孟凡军.农业机械化对发展农业现代化的重要意义[J].吉林农业，2014(17):6.
[22]胡祎，张正河.农机服务对小麦生产技术效率有影响吗?[J].中国农村经济，2018(5):68-83.
[23]杨继峰.农业机械化在农业发展中的意义探讨[J].现代农业科技，2019(5):156.
[24]陈江华，陈艳，罗明忠.农业机械应用对农村劳动力转移的影响：基于CLDS数据的分析[J].农林经济管理学报，2021,20(3):326-336.
[25]公茂刚，张梅娇.承包地“三权分置”与农业补贴对农业机械化的影响研究：基于PSM-DID方法的实证分析[J].统计研究，2022,39(4):64-79.
[26]XU D,DENG X,GUO S,et al.Labor migration and farmland abandonment in rural China:empirical results and policy implications[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2019,232(2):738-750.
[27]LU C.Does household laborer migration promote farmland abandonment in China?[J].Growth and Change,2020,51(4):1804-1836.
[28]陈景帅，韩青.农业生产性服务对农地抛荒的抑制效应[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2021,20(6):23-34.
[29]DENG X,XU D,QI Y,et al.Labor off-farm employment and cropland abandonment in rural china:spatial distribution and empirical analysis[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2018,15(9):1808.
[30]乔金笛，廖文梅，汪兴东.劳动力转移、社会福利与老年贫困户精准脱贫：促进还是抑制?[J].西安财经大学学报，2022,35(2):107-117.
[31]CHE Y.Off-farm employments and land rental behavior:evidence from rural China[J].China Agricultural Economic Review,2015,8 (1):37-54.
[32]DENG X,XU D,ZENG M,et al.Landslides and cropland abandonment in China’s mountainous areas:spatial distribution,empirical analysis and policy implications[J].Sustainability,2018,10(11):3909.
[33]王杰，蔡志坚，吉星.数字素养、农民创业与相对贫困缓解[J].电子政务，2022,(8):15-31.
[34]葛永波，陈虹宇.劳动力转移如何影响农户风险金融资产配置?基于金融排斥的视角[J].中国农村观察，2022,(3):128-146.
(1) 1亩=1/15公顷。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2023.11.009
中图分类号:F323.6;F323.3;F323.211
引用信息:
[1]田梦君,熊涛,张鹏静.劳动力转移对耕地抛荒的影响研究——基于农业机械化的调节效应分析[J].世界农业,2023,No.535(11):103-114.DOI:10.13856/j.cn11-1097/s.2023.11.009.
基金信息:
国家社科基金重大项目“新形势下我国粮食安全战略问题研究”(22&ZD079); 国家自然科学基金面上项目“农业大数据环境下农产品价格概率密度预测模型与应用研究”(72171099); 教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“新形势下我国粮食安全与水资源保障重大问题研究”(20JZD015)
2023-11-09
2023-11-09