世界农业

中非农业合作稳步推进，合作的风险逐渐显现，合理评估中非农业合作风险并根据风险差异选择合作路径具有重要意义。本文选取15个非洲国家，以组合赋权法和改进的物元可拓模型为工具，构建新发展格局下中非农业合作风险评价模型，并基于风险评价结果提出政策性建议。研究结果表明：在非洲地区进行中非农业合作整体风险较大；政治和社会管理水平、农业相关基础设施建设水平、水土资源禀赋等因素是开展中非农业项目合作的主要风险因素；不同国家的风险特征和优势禀赋差异明显，应结合风险差异和国别特征在各国开展不同类型的农业合作项目以增进双方合作效率和合作可持续性。由此提出以下建议：进一步拓宽农业项目合作领域，拓展合作主体；激发金融在中非农业经济合作中的作用；利用好农业产业园区建设、基础设施建设、人才培养等方面经验。

China-Africa agricultural cooperation is advancing steadily, and the risks of cooperation are gradually emerging. It is of great significance to reasonably assess the risks of China-Africa agricultural cooperation and choose a cooperation path according to the differences in risks. Fifteen African countries were selected to construct a risk assessment model for China-Africa agricultural cooperation under the new development pattern using the combined weighting method and the improved matter-element extension model, and policy recommendations were put forward based on the risk assessment results. The research results show that: the overall risk of China-Africa agricultural cooperation in Africa is relatively high; the political and social management level, agricultural-related infrastructure construction level, water and soil resources endowment and other factors are the main risk factors for China-Africa agricultural project cooperation; there are obvious differences in risk characteristics and advantage endowments. Different types of agricultural cooperation projects should be carried out in different countries in combination with risk differences and country characteristics to improve the efficiency and sustainability of cooperation between the two parties. Therefore, the following suggestions are put forward: further expand the fields of agricultural project cooperation and expand the cooperation subjects; stimulate the role of finance in China-Africa agricultural economic cooperation; make good use of the experience in the construction of agricultural industrial parks, infrastructure construction, and personnel training.